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Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Information Processing (ISIP 2009)

Huangshan, China, August 21-23, 2009

Editors: Fei Yu, Jian Shu, and Guangxue Yue

AP Catalog Number: AP-PROC-CS-09CN002

ISBN: 978-952-5726-02-2 (Print), 978-952-5726-03-9 (CD-ROM)

Page(s): 97-100

Research in Irreversible Depletion Model Based on the Blood of Industry

Xuejun Wu and Jun Lu

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Few people would deny that the world runs on oil. Oil, regarded as the blood of industry, may cause economic crises, and even lead to conflicts and wars. Three applicable models and several feasible policies are presented to settle the problem. We devise the Irreversible Depletion Model, and use global statistics data in logistic regressions to predict the total ultimate oil recovery. Relying on the estimated cumulative production, we make a prediction of the remaining ultimate recovery, and finally obtain the estimate of depletion year. We conclude that the prediction of the total ultimate Recovery equals 3.402Tbl and the depletion year is in 2080. As a result, our model is robust.

Index Terms

depletion model, logistic regression

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