ISSN : 1796-203X
Volume : 2    Issue : 1    Date : February 2007

Bayesian Networks and Evidence Theory to Model Complex Systems Reliability
Christophe Simon, Philippe Weber, and Eric Levrat
Page(s): 33-43
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This paper deals with the use of Bayesian Networks to compute system reliability of complex
systems under epistemic uncertainty. In the context of incompleteness of reliability data and
inconsistencies between the reliability model and the system modeled, the evidence theory is more
suitable to manage this epistemic uncertainty. We propose to adapt the Bayesian Network model of
reliability in order to integrate the evidence theory and then to produce an Evidential Network. Three
examples are proposed to observe the propagation mechanism of the uncertainty through the
network and its influence on the system reliability.

Index Terms
Reliability, Epistemic Uncertainty, Dempster Shafer Theory, Bayesian Networks, Evidential Networks